Abstract: The prediction of single-well cumulative oil production and remaining oil distribution is a core index for oilfield development and potential tapping and development adjustment. At present, existing prediction methods such as numerical simulation method, decline method and analogy method have problems such as high resource consumption, many application restrictions and high uncertainty. This paper aims to identify the main controlling factors of single-well cumulative oil production, establish a simple and reliable method for predicting cumulative oil production and remaining oil, and provide support for oilfield production guidance. By establishing a mechanism model of the influence of geological and development factors on single-well cumulative oil production, designing orthogonal experiments to analyze the influence of each factor, and identifying the main controlling factors, calculation methods for effective well control radius of different well types are proposed, and a prediction model for cumulative oil production and remaining oil is constructed. The research results show that the effective well control radius is the main controlling factor of single-well cumulative oil production. When the model is applied to Lufeng X Oilfield, the prediction error is about 5%, which successfully predicts 2 remaining oil enrichment areas, and the initial production of adjustment wells guided by the model reaches 190～223 m³/d. Field application results verify that the method is simple and reliable, and can effectively guide the tapping of remaining oil in oilfields.