Research on Prediction of Drainage Gas Production Effect Based on SVM Model

In order to solve the problem of poor prediction effect of the current drainage gas production process, taking the eddy current drainage gas production as an example, the SVM (support vector machine) model is adopted to predict the effect, fully considering the formation pressure, reservoir depth, porosity, permeability, water production, gas production, gas water ratio and other factors that affect the effect of eddy current drainage gas production, and collecting the parameters of the influencing factors of eddy current drainage gas production in seven blocks as the input vector. The average daily gas increase of single well and the daily water increase of single well are taken as output vectors. Through sample training, the optimal penalty parameter C of SVM model is determined to be 22.1453 and the optimal γ is 0.30885, of which the control error is 0.01. The established SVM model is used to predict the production of eddy current drainage in Well C1 and C8 of T gas field, and the results are compared with the actual production. The results show that the relative error of the average daily gas increase of a single well is 8.57%, and the relative error of the average daily water increase of a single well is 7%. The research shows that the prediction value of the eddy current drainage gas production effect based on SVM model is close to the actual value, and the prediction result of the model is accurate and reliable.