Abstract: Permeability is the key parameter in productivity prediction. The calculation of permeability is affected by many factors. The lithologic change influences the permeability of strata with strong heterogeneity. In this paper, the influence of lithology on permeability is quantified by logging curve, and the natural gamma value is applied to calculate permeability, so as to find a more reasonable and accurate method. On the basis of reasonably obtaining permeability, this paper optimizes and improves the productivity prediction method by using parameters such as permeability and gas saturation, and has achieved good effects. The results show that the combination of natural gamma and porosity can improve the accuracy of permeability calculation. The comprehensive physical parameter considering gas saturation and permeability has higher correlation with productivity, and the predicted productivity is more accurate. This study can provide a reference for accurate prediction of production capacity in similar areas.